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Sinyal ve Parazit: Neden Bazı Tahminler Tutar, Bazıları Tutmaz

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

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Sinyal ve Parazit: Neden Bazı Tahminler Tutar, Bazıları Tutmaz

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

4.85 47,655 ratings · 9,734 reviews
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Overview: Yogi Berra haklıydı: ‘Tahmin etmek zordur, özellikle de geleceği.” Nate Silver, bu önemli kitapta, uzmanların tahminlerinin ileri görüşlü ya da işe yaramaz olarak nasıl çeşitlilik gösterdiğini ve neden beklenmedik durumlara karşı tedbirli olmamız gerektiğini anlatıyor. Bir an sonra ne olacağını düşünen herkesin okuması gereken bir kitap.”Richard Thaler - 2017 Nobel Ekonomi Ödülü Sahibi “Nate Silver’ın hareketli üslubu en zor istatistiksel konuyu bile anlaşılır hale getirmeyi başarıyor.”Wall Street Journal “Son on yılın en önemli kitaplarından biri olabilir.”The New York Times“Sinyal ve Gürültü, çok yönlü bir kitap; Bayesyen olasılık teorisini tanıtıyor, şans ve karakter üzerine fikirler üretiyor, poker oyununun hayata benzer yanlarını yorumluyor, ancak kitabın en önemli özelliği aynı zamanda en temel ve bizim için en gerekli olanı: Veri olarak bize sunulan saçmalıkları ayırt edebilmemiz için bir kılavuz. Kitabın en iyi yanlarından birisi ise mütevazılığı. Bazen bazı şeyleri bilemeyeceğimiz gerçeğiyle yüzleşmeliyiz ve birinin bize bunu söylemesi gerekiyordu.”Esquire Nate Silver’ın dünyası hesaplamalar, geleceği dair veriler, sinyaller ve parazitlerle dolu. Bu kitapta Silver’ın tahmin bilimiyle ilgili cevap verdiği bazı soruları şöyle sıralayabiliriz: ●Büyük ekonomik krizler gerçekleşmeden önce kendilerini nasıl belli ederler?●Yarın yağmur yağacak mı, yoksa yağmayacak mı?●Kumarhanede her zaman kasa mı kazanır?●Yaklaşan büyük depremin ne zaman gerçekleşeceğini bilmeye ne kadar yakınız?●Seçim anketlerinin demokrasideki yeri nedir ve nasıl çalışırlar?●Terör olaylarını öngörmenin bir matematiği var mıdır?●Spor bahislerinde kimler daha çok başarılı olur?

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Pages 576
Language Tur
Publisher Epsilon Yayınevi
Published September 27, 2012
ISBN 39278125
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After spending years working in the corporate world, Nate Silver finally decided to pursue a lifelong passion for writing. They currently reside in a quiet suburb where they spend most of their time outlining new stories, reading extensively, and occasionally attempting to bake.

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I was completely blown away. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Exceeded all my expectations. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Sarah Roberts
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
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Patricia Roberts September 28, 2024
Absolutely brilliant. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Donald King
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Exceeded all my expectations. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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A profoundly satisfying read. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Such a rich narrative. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. A true literary gem.
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Excellent, though slightly flawed. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
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A profoundly satisfying read. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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I was completely blown away. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
James Flores
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Christopher Edwards
Christopher Edwards November 24, 2025
Absolutely brilliant. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Jacob Taylor
Jacob Taylor May 17, 2024
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Cynthia Gonzalez
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A highly sophisticated read. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. Quite impressive overall.
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A very strong entry. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
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Such a rich narrative. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars.
Donald Sanchez
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Absolutely brilliant. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Cynthia Gonzalez
Cynthia Gonzalez May 15, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Eric Phillips
Eric Phillips March 31, 2024
Masterpiece from start to finish. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
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A highly sophisticated read. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. Quite impressive overall.
Barbara Martin
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Masterpiece from start to finish. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Absolutely brilliant. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Paul Perez
Paul Perez July 01, 2025
I was completely blown away. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Michelle Roberts
Michelle Roberts July 29, 2024
Masterpiece from start to finish. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Sarah Diaz
Sarah Diaz November 25, 2024
Exceeded all my expectations. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An effortless 5 stars.
Laura Jackson
Laura Jackson April 28, 2025
Such a rich narrative. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. Worth every moment spent reading.
Donald Allen
Donald Allen September 17, 2025
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A very distinguished novel.
Steven Moore
Steven Moore September 07, 2025
Masterpiece from start to finish. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. Worth every moment spent reading.
John Mitchell
John Mitchell January 16, 2025
Such a rich narrative. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Emily Wright
Emily Wright September 05, 2025
Exceeded all my expectations. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
George Roberts
George Roberts June 07, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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